Steven Den Beste
North Korea's hand is notably absent in reasonable cards to play, so they have to use what they have, and this one at least has symbolic value capable of scaring the pants off certain people.
But they're also beginning to hint as to what they really want.
Shortly after the announcement, a North Korean envoy to China, cited by Seoul's YTN television, said North Korea would be willing to reverse its decision if the United States and its allies resumed shipments of fuel oil.
...
What they're asking for is that we buy them off, and resume substantial amounts of aid to them without any important concessions by them at all except to tone down the ruckus. Such a deal!
There's no hurry here. Let's be calm and slow and deliberative, OK? Let's spend LOOOTS of time in negotiations and consultation. Let's negotiate and dither and consider carefully what we should do. (Let's be European.)
North Korea doesn't have time. They're trying to manufacture urgency for us because they're in an urgent situation themselves. If we have a bit of patience, they will get more desperate, and if it becomes clear to them that we're not falling for it, they will change tactics, almost certainly in ways which will be better for us. ... I think they may be looking at disaster in no more than weeks. Their vehemence and stridency betrays someone who needs a quick solution. (That's one of the critical differences between North Korea and Iraq: time is on Iraq's side.)
Part of what we're reaping here comes from the fact that in the past this kind of grandstanding by North Korea did indeed result in us buying them off. (That's what the 1994 agreement amounted to.) It's important for us to break with that precedent, not only in regards to our specific situation with North Korea, but also for more global reasons.
Many other nations in the world who are in a position to manufacture crises are watching this closely. If we cave in, it's going to happen again.
